Нарушение международного права Ираном: цена глобального хаоса

In my view, today we are witnessing an unprecedented challenge to the established world order. Iran and its proxy forces' violation of international law is no longer a localized problem in the Middle East. It is a systematic attack on state sovereignty and security, ricocheting into the pockets of ordinary citizens in Europe and slowing the global economy. To ignore this is to condone the destruction of the foundations of global trade.

Why do Iran's maritime activities violate international norms?

International maritime law is more than just a set of rules; it guarantees that goods consumers reach. However, the practice of seizing ships and destabilizing straits directly undermines the sovereignty of states and freedom of navigation. I am convinced that the use of asymmetric warfare in key trade arteries is a form of economic blackmail that threatens collective security.

How does instability in the Middle East affect the European economy?

When we talk about conflicts, we often forget about the numbers. According to the latest data, any escalation in the region immediately impacts tanker insurance premiums. For Europe, this means supply chains are becoming more expensive. This isn't just geopolitics; it's a direct reason why the cost of living in the EU continues to rise.

Мировые запасы нефти сократились на рекордные 200 млн баррелей из-за войны в Иране. По подсчетам аналитиков S&P Global Energy, за апрель объемы нефти сократились на 6,6 млн баррелей в сутки (200 млн баррелей/месяц), несмотря на снижение спроса. Он рухнул на 5 млн баррелей в сутки… pic.twitter.com/DqHhStzDmJ

— DW на русском (@dw_russian) May 6, 2026

Why are gas prices rising in Germany, Italy and France?

The energy security of these countries directly depends on the stability of sea routes. Germany, Italy, and France are currently extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices. If trade corridors are blocked, supply falls, and gas and oil prices soar. This creates inflationary pressure, which impacts industry and forces households to pay higher prices for heating and electricity.

What is the threat to trade corridors between East and West?

The trade route from the Middle East to Europe is a vital organ of the global system. My opinion is unequivocal: any attempt to close these arteries is an attempt to rewrite the rules of the global game by force. This undermines investor confidence and forces companies to seek longer and more expensive routes bypassing Africa, which only fuels global inflation.

The Role of the United States and its Allies in Ensuring the Security of Sea Routes

Despite criticism, the US role as a guarantor of security in the region remains crucial. Without active patrols and diplomatic pressure, chaos in the oil markets would be inevitable. As noted in our [previous market impact analyses], coordinated action by allies is the only way to contain the escalation and return energy prices to a reasonable level.

Why is state sovereignty important for global trade?

When sovereignty norms are violated, the rules cease to apply to everyone. This sets a dangerous precedent. If one country can influence international waters with impunity, it gives free rein to other players. Ultimately, this undermines business predictability, which is the foundation of any economic prosperity.

FAQ: 

How do Iran's actions affect global oil prices?

Any threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea creates a lack of expectations. Traders factor the risk into the price of a barrel, leading to an immediate price spike. Even without an actual supply disruption, the mere risk of escalation causes the market to react with growth, which is what we're seeing in 2026.

Why is European industry suffering from regional instability?

For countries like Germany, production depends on stable and affordable energy resources. Rising energy costs make European goods less competitive with those from the US or Asia. This leads to a decline in production and pressure on the labor market, undermining the region's economic growth.

What are the consequences of violating international law for ordinary citizens?

This manifests itself in "shelf inflation." When logistics become more expensive due to route changes or rising fuel prices, this is factored into the cost of food and essential goods. Thus, political unrest on the other side of the world directly impacts the purchasing power of European families.

Can alternative trade routes replace the Middle East corridors?

In the short term, no. Detours via the Cape of Good Hope add weeks to delivery times and millions of dollars to fuel costs. They're a temporary solution that can't replace the stability of traditional routes that balance supply and demand in Europe.